Keys to a Bruins first-round series win over the Maple Leafs

For the first time in five seasons, a pair of Original Six foes will renew acquaintances in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Amid a transitional season, the Bruins swept the regular season series over the high-octane Leafs. In fact, Jim Montgomery’s club came out victorious in each of the last seven meetings with Toronto dating back to last season. 

But this series will not be a cakewalk, especially with their prior meetings in 2013, 2018 and 2019 going the distance. Even with Toronto’s goaltending and defensive deficiencies, the Leafs possess an established offensive core worthy of taking over any playoff game, as seen in their first-round series victory over the Lightning last season.

Both teams enter this year’s postseason a bit cold. The Leafs allowed 22 goals over their final four games of the regular season, while the Bruins have just one win over that same span.

With Saturday’s series opener looming, let’s look at a few of Boston’s keys to another first-round win over its Original Six rivals.

Expose Toronto’s D goaltending and stick with the Ullmark/Swayman rotation.

Despite the roster and coaching turnover over the last few seasons, the Bruins have firsthand playoff experience facing current Toronto netminder Ilya Samsonov during his time in Washington. The Bruins chased Samsonov out of the net after Game 3 of their first-round series with the Caps when Craig Smith capitalized on Samsonov’s lapse in double-overtime.

Samsonov had a productive stretch this season after the Leafs placed him on waivers. Given their other options between an inexperienced Joseph Woll and veteran Martin Jones, who’s best served in spot duty, the Leafs will likely lean heavily on Samsonov to carry the load.

The Bruins will likely implement their rotation between Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. Whether they alternate every other game or schedule some other platoon is anyone’s guess.

“They know what their strengths are for the hockey club and how much we rely on them, and performance and results will dictate some of this,” GM Don Sweeney said of Ullmark and Swayman. “But we know what the plan is going in, and so do they.”

Both netminders should feel confident heading into their third postseason together despite some inconsistent stretches and defensive lapses during the second half of the season. Swayman posted an eye-opening .959 save percentage after allowing four goals in his three starts against the Leafs this season. Ullmark conceded two goals or fewer in eight of his last 10 regular-season appearances.

Establish a productive power play.

The dreadful power play from 2011 didn’t hinder the Bruins on their run to the Stanley Cup. But they recovered in time for a productive stretch during the Final against the Canucks.

Over the last few months, Boston’s power play looked much like its 2011 counterparts pre-Vancouver series.

The top unit, featuring Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy, David Pastrnak and a rotating cast of centermen and net-front guys, including Pavel Zacha, Charlie Coyle, Jake DeBrusk and James van Riemsdyk, stagnated out of the All-Star break. Between the slow setups and the overthinking, the Bruins only netted three goals out of their primary unit since the All-Star break.

A costly blue-line turnover by McAvoy on Drew O’Connor’s shorthanded tally last Saturday in Pittsburgh prompted an irate response from Montgomery. Shattenkirk replaced McAvoy’s point spot on the ensuing attempt and helped the Bruins net their lone tally against the Sens in the regular season finale.

The Bruins went from a top-five power play to 13th at season’s end. But they’ll have a decent chance to revert to their first-half form against Toronto’s 23rd-ranked penalty kill.

Indeed, the Bruins established a decent track record against the Leafs shorthanded unit. Boston’s scored three goals in their 10 attempts against Toronto with the man advantage, including a 2-for-5 showing in their final regular season matchup.

Conversely, Boston’s top-tier penalty kill will have their hands full against a potent Toronto power play. Both teams also rank in the top ten in 5v5 goal differential. Given those developments, the Bruins could offset those trends with a productive power play in Round 1.

Limit the damage against Toronto’s core.

Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Morgan Reilly made up nearly half of Toronto’s salary cap. With little money to spend on their defensive, goaltending and other depth needs, the Leafs continue to rely heavily on their production from their core five.

Former Bruin Tyler Bertuzzi, Matthew Knies and Max Domi paced Toronto’s secondary scoring output in the second half of the season. The Leafs added some muscle at the deadline with Joel Edmundson and Ilya Lybushkin. Yet, they’re still a top-heavy bunch and will continue to lean all too heavily on their established core.

Indeed, the aforementioned five provided solid offensive outputs over the last two playoffs, with each averaging at or a near-point per game pace. But even with the makeshift holding the Leafs to one goal in each of their last two meetings, the Bruins can’t allow any of Marner, Matthews, Tavares, Nylander or Reilly to enter takeover mode.

Boston’s top pairing of McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm will log heavy minutes against Toronto’s top six. The second pair of Brandon Carlo and Matt Grzelcyk and a third duo featuring a rotation involving Andrew Peeke, Parker Wotherspoon and Kevin Shattenkirk will also encounter shifts against the Leafs’ first and second lines.

Shutting down the Toronto core is a tall order. But limiting the damage is doable. 

“They have a lot of great skill players who play hard and can be very dangerous around the net and creating scoring opportunities. So you just got to be aware of who’s out there and who you’re matched up against,” Coyle said of the Leafs. “And that’s the thing. They play hard, you know. I think, also too, we get to focus on our game and what we do well. And when we do that, and we trust each other and have that belief in each other, we’re pretty good.”